JOHANNESBURG. Jacob Zuma’s ascendance to the position as president of the ANC won’t change the way business is done in South Africa in the short term. President Thabo Mbeki will continue to govern and there are no particular policy changes emanating from the ruling party ANC’s 52nd congress.
But it is naïve to think that Mr. Zuma’s comprehensive victory over incumbent president Thabo Mbeki won’t have repercussions.
Mr. Zuma and his lieutenants are in the position to set the agenda at the ANC’s national executive committee, and the even more important national working committee, and taking control there with the help of communist party and trade union allies.
The main driver behind the change of the ANC internal revolution wasn’t personality but rather a high level of irritation among alienated ANC constituents. As well as greed.
The greed factor should not be under-estimated. President Mbeki has pointed the problem out a number of times himself, but hasn’t offered any cure to his party-collegues tendency to find ways of benefitting financially from their political positions or prominence. Rather the opposite in fact as one of his pet projects, to make black economic empowerment more efficient, has lead to an overwhelming focus on how to enrich the already relatively well off at the expense on the situation for the country’s poor.
Previously unhappiness has been handled within the ranks, but in this instance the disgruntled were mobilised by Zuma’s backers together with “the walking wounded”, people that for different reasons had been sidelined by Mbeki over the years. These, including former chief-whip Tony Yengeni, former secret service boss Billy Matsila, as well as various powerful ANC factions, felt they had been sidelined politically and therefore also from possibilities to gain from patronage.
In retrospect it is easy to say that this kind of disgruntlement, in particular from the left side of the ANC, should have been noted and handled by the Mbeki faction.
Maybe to busy to govern and badly informed, the Mbeki faction allowed Mr. Zuma, in his position as the then deputy president of the ANC, to effectively campaign within party ranks for 18 months and build up considerable steam – only to wake up a couple of weeks ahead of the congress, which proved too late.
The price was paid by a large number of Cabinet ministers as they were voted off the new NEC, which is dominated by of Zuma loyalists.
Now, the Mbeki faction, and most of the country’s business establishment, are pinning their hopes on National Prosecution Agency’s new charges against Zuma in August, when he faces 16 charges including racketeering, corruption, money laundering and fraud. Mr. Zuma’s former financial advisor Shabir Schaik is already serving a 15-year sentence and the charges against Zuma are mainly based on that sentence.
The legal process is highly politically charged, with allegations among Zuma’s followers that this is an Mbeki-directed witch-hunt. At stake is who will become the country’s next president, if Zuma is sentenced. He has himself made clear that he will not step down as the ANC’s president unless he is proven guilty.
The general perception among experts and the media is that Mr. Zuma has something to hide. Why else would he spend millions on lawyers to help them stop the state from gathering evidence? Why not just come clean by handing over whatever the state wants and get it all and done with?
The answer, most opinion makers think, is that Zuma does have something to hide and that he, in the process, is holding his own political party and the country to ransom.
It is fully understandable why that is. If Zuma had given up without putting up a political fight he most likely would have been in jail already. As it were he has managed to hide behind his supporters for a considerable time. Who knows – he may be able to go all the way and become the country’s next president after the elections in 2009. In particular as Zuma’s lawyers have proven themselves to be very resourceful in applying serious delay tactics. One can assume that as soon as he is sworn in as the next state president he will, as much as South Africa’s judiciary is relatively independent – also be able to put an end to the trial for at least as long as he stays in power.
The consequences may not be as dreadful as they might look. The ANC’s new leadership cannot be said to be a populist bunch, easily led or misled by Zuma. Yes there are representatives from the communist party and the trade unions, but that is not necessarily a bad idea.
On economic- and foreign affairs issues Zuma hasn’t signaled any change of any substance so far. Domestically one could expect more social spending, but the Mbeki government has been pretty generous itself over the past few years. The country has become a mini-welfare state with more than 12 million people benefiting from social payouts. Not that much more can be done in that department.
What is certain though is that South Africa is likely to miss Mbeki’s leadership on foreign affairs issues. He has managed to place South Africa in a position way beyond its weight by having a vision and by brokering various peace deals offering a way forward for Africa.
There is no one in the wings, at least not within sight, with that kind of caliber.
As for foreign investments and doing deals with South Africa there is little reason to change the strategy. South Africa’s solid economic growth, stable policies and strong growth of a well-educated, fiercely independent middle class warrants that it will stay that way.
But there will be a change of guards and a new generation coming onboard who want a slice of the action.
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